The fifth-seeded Kansas City Royals are set to face the top-seeded New York Yankees in Game 3 of their 2024 ALDS series on Wednesday in Kansas City. After splitting the first two games, the Royals secured a 4-2 victory in Game 2, leveling the series at 1-1. The Yankees (94-68) have struggled recently, losing five of their last eight games, and are aiming to reach the World Series for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, the Royals (86-76) are making their first playoff appearance since their 2015 championship win.
The game will take place at Kauffman Stadium, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Historically, the Yankees have had the upper hand, going 14-6 against the Royals in their last 20 matchups. New York is currently favored at -116 on the money line (bet $116 to win $100), and the over/under for total runs is set at 8. Before placing any bets on the game, it’s advisable to check the predictions and insights from SportsLine’s reliable computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and has been performing well as the 2024 playoffs enter their second week. It boasts a record of 32-17 on top-rated run-line picks, yielding a profit of +822 since last season. Those who have been following its advice have seen significant returns.
The model has now focused on the Yankees vs. Royals matchup and has made its picks and predictions. For the latest odds, here are some key figures for the game:
- Money line: New York -116, Kansas City -104
- Over/under: 8 runs
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+143)
Yankees Stats: New York has gone over the total in 64 of their last 107 games, resulting in a profit of +20.60 units.
Royals Stats: Kansas City has gone under in 23 of their last 31 games, yielding a profit of +15.25 units.
Reasons to Support the Royals
The Kansas City Royals are set to start right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) in their upcoming game. Lugo led the team in wins this season, making 33 starts and pitching 206.2 innings, during which he allowed 177 hits, 69 earned runs, and 48 walks, while striking out 181 batters. He secured a victory in Game 1 of the Wild Card round, a 2-1 win against the Baltimore Orioles on October 2, where he pitched 4.1 innings, giving up five hits, one earned run, and one walk, while striking out six. Against the Yankees, Lugo has a solid 5-2 record over 14 career appearances, totaling 35.1 innings, during which he allowed 25 hits, 10 earned runs, and nine walks, striking out 45.
Bobby Witt Jr., the shortstop, is one of Kansas City’s standout hitters. He played a crucial role in the Royals’ Wild Card sweep of the Orioles, going 3-for-9 with two RBIs. Over 161 regular-season games, he boasted a .332 batting average, hitting 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 home runs, and driving in 109 runs. In 17 career games against the Yankees, Witt has hit .338, with five doubles, one triple, one home run, and seven RBIs.
Reasons to Support the Yankees
The New York Yankees are set to start right-hander Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) in the upcoming game. This season, Schmidt has made 16 starts and pitched 85.1 innings, giving up 71 hits, 27 earned runs, and 30 walks, while striking out 93 batters. In his career, he has faced the Royals four times, including two starts, and holds a 3.29 ERA over 13.2 innings, allowing 16 hits, five earned runs, and two walks, with 11 strikeouts.
Aaron Judge, the center fielder, is a key player for the Yankees’ offense. In 158 regular-season games, he posted a .322 batting average, hitting 36 doubles, one triple, 58 home runs, 144 RBIs, and scoring 122 runs. He finished the season strong, recording hits in five of his last six games, which included three multi-hit performances and home runs in five consecutive games. In 34 career matchups against the Royals, Judge has maintained a .300 average, with five doubles, 13 home runs, and 29 RBIs.
According to SportsLine’s model, the prediction leans towards the Over on the total runs, estimating a combined score of 8.8 runs. The model also identifies a side of the money line that offers significant value. You can access the MLB model’s picks exclusively at SportsLine.
Curious about who will win between the Yankees and the Royals and which side presents the best value? Head over to SportsLine to discover which team to back, all backed by a model that’s boasting a 32-17 record on top-rated MLB run-line picks.