In New Jersey’s upcoming gubernatorial race, the most influential Republican contender may be a part-time resident of Bedminster who shaped his reputation and brand near the Atlantic City Boardwalk.
“Donald Trump is the X factor in this GOP primary,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship. “His endorsement right now could make or break a candidate, depending on who he chooses to support.”
However, in a state that has traditionally leaned Democratic, Trump’s endorsement in the June 10 primary could create challenges in the general election, where the winner will face off against a candidate from a six-person Democratic field.
This dynamic may explain why Republican state Sen. Jon Bramnick has openly criticized Trump over his pardons for individuals involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. Meanwhile, two other leading GOP candidates have quietly sought Trump’s endorsement, hoping to gain an edge in the competitive race.
As one of only two states with a gubernatorial race this year—Virginia being the other—New Jersey’s general election will draw attention as a potential indicator of how blue-state voters respond to Trump’s influence.
Trump, who built his brand as an Atlantic City casino owner and still holds property in New Jersey, including the Bedminster golf club, managed to narrow the gap between his 2020 and 2024 presidential campaigns but ultimately lost the state both times. Despite this, Democrats continue to hold strong control in New Jersey, making the upcoming election a key test of Trump’s lingering impact in the state.
Some Republicans believe that dynamic is shifting.
Last week, the GOP race narrowed from five candidates to four when Ed Durr, a former state senator and outspoken Trump supporter, dropped out. Durr gained national attention in 2021 when he unexpectedly defeated state Senate President Steve Sweeney, a Democrat, in their southern New Jersey district. A furniture truck driver with no prior political experience, Durr announced his decision to end his campaign so that radio host and fellow Trump supporter Bill Spadea could secure victory over candidates opposed to Trump in the race.
Both Bill Spadea and Jack Ciattarelli, the 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee who lost to term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy by about three percentage points, have previously criticized Trump but have recently shown strong support for him.
Ciattarelli met with Trump last week. His campaign strategist, Chris Russell, declined to share details about the meeting but stated that Ciattarelli would welcome Trump’s endorsement if offered. Spadea’s campaign has not responded to requests for comment.
Mario Kranjac, a former two-term mayor of Englewood Cliffs, a suburban town near New York City, and a recent candidate in the race, believes he is the most Trump-aligned contender. He says his unwavering support for Trump during the president’s first term sets him apart.
“The residents, citizens, and taxpayers of New Jersey need a governor with fixed values and beliefs, and that’s me—based on everything I stand for and everything President Trump stands for,” Kranjac said in a phone interview. “Voters shouldn’t have to worry that their candidate will abandon President Trump when it matters most, because I would never do that.”
One of the key challenges for Republicans is that the impact of Trump’s support is unpredictable. While his first two months in a potential second presidential term may have turned some voters away, it also helped him gain new supporters. Predicting how much Trump’s endorsement will influence the primary race is difficult, as political dynamics shift rapidly.
Before Trump’s influence, some Republicans managed to balance the demands of both primary and general elections effectively. Although Republicans haven’t won a U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey in over 50 years, they’ve had more success in gubernatorial races. The last three Republican governors—Thomas Kean Sr., Christine Todd Whitman, and Chris Christie—each served two consecutive terms. However, their political approach was rooted in business-friendly conservatism, which contrasts sharply with Trump’s bold populism.
While Democrats continue to dominate New Jersey politics, some Republicans believe that dominance is beginning to erode. Chris Russell, Ciattarelli’s campaign strategist, highlights the GOP’s recent gains in voter registration, reducing the Democratic advantage from 1 million to 834,000 voters.
He argued that Democrats shouldn’t be overly confident in their long-standing advantages.
“I think they’re missing the lesson of the 2024 election in New Jersey, which is that Donald Trump performed exceptionally well in the state,” he said.
Trump’s influence remains a significant factor for the GOP, as evidenced by Ed Durr’s decision to withdraw from the race.
In his announcement, Durr stated he was ending his campaign to give Spadea a better chance of winning. However, he later clarified that his statement wasn’t an official endorsement. Steve Kush, a spokesperson for Durr, explained the distinction, subtly highlighting Trump’s dominant role in the primary race.
“He doesn’t want to use the word endorse because he doesn’t want to get ahead of President Trump,” Kush said.