Officials in the northern Caribbean issued warnings on Thursday about heavy rainfall and hazardous swells as Tropical Storm Erin moves closer to the region. Although the storm is expected to remain over open waters, it will pass north-northeast of islands such as Antigua and Barbuda, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
As of Thursday, Erin was located about 890 miles (1,435 kilometers) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kph) and was moving west at 17 mph (28 kph).
Forecasters expect Erin to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday, potentially becoming a Category 3 storm by late Saturday—marking what could be the first major hurricane of this season.
“Erin is heading into an area of the Atlantic that’s highly favorable for rapid intensification, with extremely warm waters,” said Alex DaSilva, chief hurricane expert at AccuWeather.
Tropical-storm-force winds could be felt across parts of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands over the weekend.
However, forecasters cautioned that uncertainty remains high regarding the storm’s long-term path and potential impacts on places like the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast. “There is still a greater-than-usual uncertainty about what Erin may bring to these areas in the coming days,” the hurricane center noted.
Storm surge and hurricane expert Michael Lowry added that most forecast models currently show Erin curving away from the U.S. and staying safely to the east next week.
Erin is the fifth named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. This season is projected to be unusually active, with meteorologists predicting six to ten hurricanes—up to half of which could become major storms.
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