Scientists have confirmed that Earth is no longer at risk from asteroid 2024 YR4. After two months of detailed observations, both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have nearly ruled out any potential threat.
Initially, there was a 3% chance of the asteroid striking Earth in 2032, which made it a top concern for asteroid risk. However, ESA has since reduced the probability to 0.001%, and NASA’s estimate is slightly higher at 0.0027%. This means the asteroid will safely pass by Earth in 2032, and there is no danger of an impact over the next 100 years.
Despite this, there is still a 1.7% chance that the asteroid could collide with the moon on December 22, 2032. Telescopes around the world will continue to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory, and next month, the Webb Space Telescope will focus on determining its exact size. The asteroid is expected to become unobservable in a month or two as it moves further away from Earth.
The asteroid, which was discovered in December, is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter and makes a close pass by Earth every four years.
Although 2024 YR4 no longer presents a significant risk to Earth, NASA highlighted that its study has been invaluable for research purposes.